Matt Booher

Fun With NBA Playoff Predictions

On the eve of the 2010 NBA Playoffs, I thought it would be fun to sit down and take a statistical look at the first round matchups. A few fellow Cavs fans have been asking me if we have anything to fear in Chicago, and of course being a Cleveland sports fan, its impossible to not be terrified at the prospect of suffering a stunning first round loss in a season were Cleveland look likely candidates for a NBA title. So I decided to play with some numbers to put the collective fears into context and also see if there are any other first round matchups worth tuning in. This is especially important in Ohio where the games in the intensely competitive Western Conference will be decided after midnight. Gotta see if the loss of sleep gets rewarded with some awesome basketball.

Note: The two tools I've used to generate these predictions are not my own. First, Jeff Sagarin's NBA Ratings available at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0910.htm serve as the team power ratings. Second, I've repurposed Wayne Winston's spurscavs82.xls model from his book Mathletics. His website can be found at http://www.waynewinston.com. I've used these tools becuase both authors made them available, however, I want to be clear they are not mine nor is my intent to portray them as mine. So on to the analysis:

Eastern Conference

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Chicago Bulls - Cleveland 91% chance to win series
On paper, this series appears to be the biggest mismatch of all the first round matchups. But Chicago and Cleveland tied the regular season series at 2-2 and while it is likely Cleveland will move on to the second round, it may not be the easy four-game sweep many Cavs fans expect.

(2) Orlando Magic vs (7) Charlotte Bobcats - Orlando 85% chance to win series
The defending Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic will more than likely find their way into the second round as playoff debutantes Charlotte prepare for the franchise's first ever playoff series. Orlando's talent and inside presence will prove too much for the pesky Bobcats.

(3) Atlanta Hawks vs (6) Milwaukee Bucks - Atlanta 72% chance to win series
Milwaukee earned a surprise spot in the NBA Playoffs and a matchup with Atlanta, a team looking to find a way to get deeper into the playoffs after coming up short last season. Atlanta will get a shot at division rival Orlando in the second round since the Bucks will be without starting center Andrew Bogut.

(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Miami Heat - Boston 61% chance to win series
This series holds all the star power as Garnett, Pierce, and Allen faceoff against Dwayne Wade in a compelling first round matchup. But like the other first round matchups in the Eastern Conference, the higher seed will hold, setting up an even more exciting second round contest with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Oklahoma City Thunder - Los Angeles 65% chance to win series
I know, this sounds crazy, but the Thunder are much better than most realize. In the Western Conference, earning the eighth seed and a matchup with the defending champs doesn't feel like much of a reward, but this might just be the must-see series of the first round. Phil Jackson's recent outbursts against the officiating and Kevin Durant might just prove prescient...I think the Zen Master knows Kobe and crew are in for a fight.

(2) Dallas Mavericks vs (7) San Antonio Spurs - San Antonio 51% chance to win series
Shocking. The Mavericks clearly have been the second best team in the Western Conference all season, but not even home court advantage gives Dallas a boost to overcome San Antonio. This matchup certainly speaks to the parity out West, because after running the model 10,000 times, the Spurs still earned the slight edge thanks to some rounding up.

(3) Phoenix Suns vs (6) Portland Trailblazers - Phoenix 63% chance to win series
The model doesn't account for the recent injury to Brandon Roy, but nonetheless, the Suns should be able to dispatch Portland with a solid effort. Portland did battle hard in the ultra-competitive Northwest Division while Phoenix bested weaker Pacific foes in Sacramento, the Clippers, and Golden State, but Phoenix has a bit more experience.

(4) Denver Nuggets vs (5) Utah Jazz - Utah 51% chance to win series
Denver has been the trendy pick to oust the Lakers from atop the Western Conference perch for two seasons now but they'll be lucky to get out of the first round matcup with divison rival Utah. Despite the identical records and Denver earning home court, Utah looks to have a slight edge in getting at the Lakers in the next round.

The Western Conference clearly has the more exciting matchups as the bottom four seeds are much stronger than the bottom four seeds in the East. The playoffs in the East won't get going until the second round whereas the first round out West will be make or break for every team other than the Lakers and Suns. If you're inclinded to gamble...putting a few bucks on the Jazz and Spurs while parlaying the top 4 in the East might turn out to be a decent investment.