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Aston Villa: The Post-Mortem

The numbers paint a pretty dismal picture:

  • 38 points from 38 games – lowest point total in 42 years
  • One point worse than the total accumulated by relegated Birmingham City last season
  • Four wins in 18 home games – worst home record in history of the club
  • Two wins in final 18 games of the season
  • Winless in final 10 games of the season
  • Escaped relegation by two points
  • Worst league finish in six years

Alex McLeish
Needless to say the recent dismissal of Alex McLeish as Aston Villa manager closes the door on a relationship that was a day too long from the day it began. CEO Paul Faulkner exhibited poor judgement with his selection of McLeish. Not only did the former Birmingham City skipper twice relegate the Blues in three seasons, but his teams played unattractive football. Many of McLeish’s defenders in the media chalked the vitriol from Villa supporters up to his St. Andrew’s ties, but that’s just lazy journalism. The record above speaks for itself. Moving on…

Ownership
Randy Lerner invested no small sum of his inherited fortune upon arriving at Villa Park. With Martin O’Neal on board, Lerner decided to go for it. The current state of the squad is penance for the trust he placed in MON but the money spent chasing a Champions League position. It’s hard to fault Lerner for pulling back on the spending. But the whole cost-cutting approach seemed directionless. Villa accepted cuts wherever they could be found and the slash and burn approach left a weakened squad ill-prepared for the challenges presented during the 2011-2012 campaign.

Squad
Shay Given may have single-handedly kept Villa from falling into the Championship. Far too often the back four conceded goal chances too easily, leaving Given exposed and isolated. When Richard Dunne went down with a broken collarbone, Given took command and helped organize an inexperienced and unfamiliar backline. Left to make acrobatic saves, Given showed himself to be one of the smartest pieces of business from last summer’s transfer window.

Injuries forced Villa to shuffle the defense on far too many occasions. As the Claret and Blue slipped into a relegation tussle, the back four typically included youngsters Eric Lichaj and Nathan Baker as Stephen Warnock slid into midfield (certainly one of the more “curious” McLeish decisions).

Darren Bent’s injury certainly hindered Villa’s ability to score goals, but the midfield looked in complete disarray all season. Part of the midfield’s ineffectiveness can be attributed to McLeish’s inexplicable tactics and scatter-brained style of play. Too narrow. Too defensive. Absolutely no imagination. Too often Villa were overrun in the middle of the pitch and forced into their own half. The inability to generate an attack from a defensive position led to Villa’s strikers spending an awful large amount of time isolated up front with nothing to do.

Andreas Wiemann’s emergence as a future fixture up front stood out as a lone highlight from the attackers this season. Bent’s injury and Gabby Agbonlahor’s disappearing act stiffled an offense already limited by the manager’s preferred approach to football. Emile Heskey offered no relief as a target man. Villa’s new manager must find a way to improve goal production.

Next Season
Rival Premier League sides offer a way out of this current fog engulfing Villa Park (see United, Newcastle and Everton). It’s clear the wage bill must be reduced, but it must be reduced with clear alternatives in mind. This will require a manager with an eye for finding value in places most English clubs wouldn’t think to look. The buy-to-sell mindset must evolve into a buy-low, perform-high approach that looks beyond the net transfer earnings and produces results on the pitch.

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By brownsvillan – May 16, 2012

Talking baseball with Tableau

Spent some thinking about the Indians chances this season and decided to put together a data visualization to try and explain how the AL Central might finish this year. The viz uses data from Fangraphs – primarily the 2011 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 2012 Projected WAR, and games played data to determine factors influencing the division race.

Clearly, its the Tigers division to lose. They have two of the best position players in the division in Miguel Cabrera (7.3 WAR in 2011/6.9 projected WAR in 2012) and Prince Fielder (5.5/5.4)and best starting pitcher in Justin Verlander (7.0). The remaining starting pitching will be strong enough to sustain Detroit over the long season. Staying healthy will always be a concern, but the Tigers have enough depth.

The Indians look ready to settle into second place and consolidate for a run next season. If Jason Kipnis (0.8/3.5 in 36 games in 2011) and Shin-Soo Choo (1.4/4.6 in 85 games) stay healthy and productive for extended parts of the season, the Indians have a lineup capable of rivaling the Tigers in terms of overall production. And while the Tribe lacks an ace like Verlander, they do have solid starting pitching.

The Royals appear poised on the verge of mediocrity, and for the downtrodden franchise, an improvement over where they’ve been in the past. They have a legitimate stud in Alex Gordon (6.9/5.5) and an emerging core of positional talent ready to take the next step. Pitching remains a huge concern.

Chicago has enough firepower to keep out of the AL Central basement. Alexi Ramirez (4.9/4.5) and Paul Konerko (3.1/3.5) will lead the offense. If Adam Dunn can become marginally productive and avoid last season’s -2.9 WAR, the White Sox have will compete enough to keep things interesting. The pitching staff lacks an classic ace but will send out a solid arm daily.

Despite the new stadium and promised revenue increases Minnesota stands ready to take a few steps back. Joe Mauer (1.6/5.4 in 82 games) and Justin Morneau (-0.3/2.3 in 69 games) can’t stay healthy and the rest of the roster consists of a slew of slightly above replacement players. The pitching looks OK, but not capable of carrying a weak offense.

Projected Finish:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

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By brownsvillan – April 25, 2012

Kokinis thrown under the bus – who’s next?

The dismissal of George Kokinis as General Manager of the Cleveland Browns sounds like an act of desperation and these are desperate times for the franchise. But make no mistake, this move was no act of desperation. Kokinis’s dismissal was a direct shot at head coach Eric Mangini as Mangini personally selected Kokinis as GM. But Mangini is no longer in control. After Sunday’s game owner Randy Lerner said the team needed to hire a “strong, credible, serious leader.” He took the first step on Monday by letting Kokinis go. The second step is around the corner as Lerner will likely seek a personality similar to Martin O’Niell, the man running his Aston Villa soccer club – an experienced, credible, and highly respected manager of men.

The difficult thing about the Kokinis firing is how it sounds a bit criminal – as if the Browns could not tolerate his presence any longer and they needed to escort him from the premises. The only criminal behavior at this point is the Browns performance on the field and the fact that the players actually get to collect paychecks after increasingly sad and pathetic performances. Kokinis did leave the Browns with a solid salary cap situation and did manage to find a taker for Kellen Winslow and his creaky knees. But it appears he all to often rubber stamped Mangini’s player personnel plans and didn’t act like the boss.

It’s clear this saga is far from over. The firing and hiring of a strong football leader is only the start. But as this soap opera unfolds, we can only wonder what’s coming next? My guess is its not nearly as predictable as a Browns incompletion on third down.

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By brownsvillan – November 2, 2009

Manny Acta next Tribe manager. Who?

Well Tribe fans, this one is a head scratcher. The Cleveland Indians introduced Manny Acta as manager yesterday afternoon, and, while very little is known about him by the fans, you have to wonder what Mark Shapiro and Larry Dolan are thinking. Less than six months ago Acta was let go by the anemic Washington Nationals – a team that lost 103 games and actually improved once Acta left. Under Acta the Nats were 22-61. And now he is manager of the Cleveland Indians – a 97-loss team that fell on its face under Eric Wedge.

Shapiro cited Acta’s communication skills, energetic leadership, and positive mindset as reasons for the hire. Hmm…didn’t see winning in there. And I guess you’ll need a positive mindset when you look at a roster that no longer has an All-Star catcher and two consecutive Cy Young winners that will be each starting Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday for someone else. It’s getting hard to take the Indians front office seriously anymore. They couldn’t wait for Don Mattingly and decided a guy with some experience, even if some of it is a circus act, didn’t fit their master plan, er, budget in Bobby Valentine.

But with all that said, it would be unfair and unreasonable not to give Acta a chance. If anything, we’ll no longer have to listen to monotone monologues about how the guys need to grind it out during another season of unmet expectations. But in truth, Acta didn’t have a lot to work with in Washington. He’s starting with a team that’s starting over in Cleveland and maybe the fans can hit the reset button themselves. Perhaps its somewhere on the top of our heads.

For more, check out Cleveland.com’s rundown of what others are saying about Acta and the hire.

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By brownsvillan – October 26, 2009

Why Mangini is winning me over

Just a few weeks ago I wrote about how Cleveland Browns head coach Eric Mangini was taking the Browns on a road to nowhere. I laid out arguments about he was an arrogant jerk despite his lack of success in New York, how his teams play boring football, and lamented the general absence of progress in the first seven games of the season (including the four preseason games).

Well…I’m starting to change my mind. Sure, trading malcontent and general pain-in-the-ass Braylon Edwards helped with my opinion. Shedding the franchise of a guy that seemed to blame everyone but himself for his problems and didn’t want to be a part of the Cleveland Browns demonstrated to me that Mangini actually cares enough about the franchise to only include guys willing to put in the work for the betterment of the team. Mangini could have taken the easy way out, but he made a deal, got a few players in return, and then the team went out and won a game. Case closed.

So back to why I’ve changed my mind. Over past three weeks (OT loss to Bengals, win at Buffalo, expected loss at Pittsburgh) the team has made genuine progress. The defense is still giving up big plays, but more and more, they are finding ways to get off the field. Special teams play has been outstanding. The offense, while still unable to mount anything closely resembling a passing game, hammered out two consecutive 100-yard rushing performance by two different backs. It’s still not anywhere near where it needs to be…but its better. And the whole quarterback thing – well, we’re just going to have to make do and wait another year.

The cause of this improvement you might ask? In my mind, the change in demeanor. I’ve suddenly noticed Mangini smiling a bit more. Perhaps the Ravens beat down knocked out much of his spite, but Mangini seems to be employing a program that allows his players to have some fun while simultaneously trying to win football games. It shows. The Browns are showing some fight. And the creativity helps, too. The Cribbs wildcat formation kept the Steelers on their heels and infused some much needed energy into the team.

With all that I just said, however, there is still work to be done. The lack of talent will mean that a lack of winning will continue. I’m not quite sure about the vision of the team and the question at the quarterback position must be answered in the offseason. And what I said last week still holds true – Mangini has yet to win big, he still rubs many in the game the wrong way, and the Browns will certainly own a Top 5 pick in next year’s draft. But, unlike last month, I’m more willing to give him a chance.

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By brownsvillan – October 19, 2009

Ohio State Buckeyes facing a bleak future if things don’t change

The Ohio State Buckeyes are peering over the ledge of a precipice. At the bottom sits what every Buckeye fan fears – a mediocre football program coupled with year and after year of middle of the pack Big Ten Conference finishes. Think Minnesota. Purdue and, god forbid, Michigan State.

Recent flops in big games have already tarnished the Buckeyes national reputation. Along with the losses, the Big 10 has taken hits along the way. Penn State and Michigan no longer hold national cache. Ohio State, while generally respected, no longer contributes to the national power discussion. That table is now reserved for USC, Florida, Texas, and to an extent, a handful of SEC teams like Alabama and LSU. This hurts recruitment. Why play for a great program in a modest conference if you can play big games every week for some of these other programs?

The Buckeyes will always recruit big name players. NFL alumni that once called Columbus home are numerous and influential in the game of the football. See Derron Carter as an example. But a roster once stocked with blue-chip recruits two and three deep will soon become a roster of a handful of blue chippers with local Midwestern talent mixed in. But if the coaching staff doesn’t start to show an ability to develop big name talent and the type of athletic players forcing changes in the way football is played, Ohio State’s growing dinosaur reputation will soon see desirable as fans start picking through the bones dreaming of a once proud history.

Terrelle Pryor is struggling and regressing. An offense with such a talented player at QB such as Pryor shouldn’t struggle this much. The coaching staff may be trying to develop his more traditional quarterback skills such as pocket passing and checking down to his third and fourth receivers. But you can’t take a Mercedes offroading. It’s disingenuous and hurting the player.

Some might point to Troy Smith’s success in the Buckeyes offense as proof that Tressel and his coaching staff can handle the task of developing Pryor. That’s not hard to refute. But watching Pryor throw temper tantrums and exude general frustration, you have to wonder if he is putting in the work to develop. Smith started as a backup and wasn’t highly regarded as a quarterback. But he put in the work and become a great Buckeye. The coaching staff developed an offense to take advantage of his skills and the team excelled. So far with Pryor, the team looks lost with a bunch of parts not fitting together.

Generally speaking, the style of play does not fit the players. The coaches call passive zone defense schemes that don’t have quick, agile linebackers blitzing the quarterback. A ball-hawking secondary that is asked to sit back and protect against the big play. Slow, trap-oriented running plays with lineman that can’t get on their blocks fast enough. Overall, the coaches seem to be stuck in a timewarp, coaching a game that isn’t played by anyone anymore. Check out a Friday night football game throughout the state of Ohio and you’ll see more innovation coming from them than you see from the crew up in Columbus. This isn’t the conservative label…I think Tressel’s in-game management is moderate if not polite to opponents, but they just seem out of ideas.

Pryor never really played quarterback in high school. He played a game that felt more like a video game as he danced around opponents and generally racked up massive numbers. He had a national rep and wanted to stay relatively close to home. But I’m confident he didn’t think he would regress as a player and play for a team that increasingly looks more and more like a Big 10 also ran. That’s on the coaches. And its up to them to peak over the ledge, reject what they see and where they are headed, start making some changes, and revive the Buckeyes reputation as the best of the best.

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By brownsvillan – October 18, 2009

Mangini offering Browns road to nowhere

If you’re not a fan of Eric Mangini, get in line. Get in line behind the Browns fans, the Browns players, the local media, the national media, and likely, the Browns front office. This certainly can’t be what Randy Lerner had in mind when went against popular sentiment and made Mangini the fourth head coach in 11 years to lead this once-proud franchise. But as the early season losses continue to increase in severity and the Browns look as lost as they have at any point in the history of the franchise, the Mangini Era might be as short-lived as the competitiveness of the team he’s putting on the field.

Its easy for Browns fans not to like Eric Mangini. He’s arrogant. His teams play boring football. He hasn’t won anything and it doesn’t appear that the Browns will be winning anytime soon. The Browns can’t score. The Browns can’t tackle. Progress has not been made and they’ve run out of patience with another Belichick coaching tree branch after just three games.

And the players can’t enjoy playing for a guy that can’t find joy in a game. They also can’t like a guy that makes them take a 10-hour bus ride to his camp while he takes a flight. His nitpicking isn’t translating to success on the field and after the 34-3 pasting at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, you’d have to wonder if they’re interested in playing for the guy another week. Free agents certainly will be adding Cleveland to their no-way-in-hell-will-I-play-there list. Even Cincinnati has to be a more attractive option at this point.

The local media didn’t seem to be too fond of the games Mangini played with the media regarding the starting quarterback and the CIA-like secrecy he conducted his first training camp in Berea. And the national media certainly dislikes Mangini. Check out this doozy from Gregg Doyel as he eviscerates Mangini calling him a jerk and a pathetic bully that gets off on little man power trips like hiding the identity of the starting quarterback. ESPN seemed all to happy to let us know that five players have filed grievances against him. And most analysts simply laugh at the Browns as the ineptitude grows.

But I guess none of this matters to Mangini unless the guy employing him decides he’s had enough. And my guess is that Randy Lerner, while frustrated, isn’t one to make rash decisions such as hiring a very undesirable head coach when more qualified and skilled coaching candidates were still on the market. So far we’re not at the end of the line.

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By brownsvillan – September 27, 2009

Premier League Week 1 Recap

Game of the Week: Tottenham 2 – Liverpool 1. The Sunday afternoon kickoff featured Tottenham’s return to the upper echelon of the Premier League with a convincing 2-1 victory at White Heart Lane. Suddenly, questions are being asked of Liverpool’s title credentials as Spurs summarily dominated the match. Rafa Benetiz will need to regroup the Reds as a slow start to could dampen title aspirations.

Shock of the Week: Everton 1 – 6 Arsenal. Aston Villa’s 2-0 clunker against Wigan looked like a shoe-in for this mention until Everton turned in an appalling performance against the Gunners in the late kickoff. One game doesn’t make a season but it sure looked as if only one of the two teams expected to sink this season got the message. Arsenal absolutely dismantled Everton, serving notice to many the Big Four remains intact.

Transfer Goat of the Week: Martin O’Niell While it might be a bit unfair to single out MON after all he has done to remake the club, the Villans performance at home shows that his inability to bring in replacements for Gareth Barry and Martin Laursen has jeopardized Villa’s place among the better Premier League clubs. With European commitments adding further strain to an already thin squad, its not been a good week for MON.

Big Four Snoozer of the Week: Manchester United 1 – 0 Birmingham City. United’s title defense started with a Wayne Rooney goal in the 34th minute. Unfortunately, that is all that happened as many of the Red Devils’ chances came to nothing.

Relegation Six-Pointer of the Week: Stoke City 2 – Burnley 0. Points weren’t going to come easy for newly promoted Burnley as they see Manchester United, Everton, and Chelsea in the next three matches following a trip to Stoke. Unfortunately, it looks as if Burnley could close out August stuck on zero. Let the relegation talk begin.

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By brownsvillan – August 18, 2009

Liverpool tops my 2009-2010 Premier League Preview

liverpoolWhen making Premier League predictions it’s probably much easier to just go with some combination of the top four – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United – and three relegation candidates. Add in a few Europa League spots for fifth, sixth, and seventh and only half of the predictions really carry any weight. But of course, that would say nothing about the clubs disappointed by just barely missing out on European football or the sheer ecstasy of the team finding themselves 17th on the final day of the season, just clear of the drop and secure in another Premier League campaign the following year.

Liverpool, 1st
If there ever was a time for Liverpool to win the Leauge, 2009-2010 would appear as it. Manchester City weakened the top four with a raid for players on Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Rafael Benitez, however, did little to improve the second-place squad during the summer transfer period only bringing in two key players – Glen Johnson from Portsmouth for 17m and Alberto Aquiliani from AS Roma for 20m – and selling off a handful of midfielders including Xavi Alonso and Alvaro Arbeloa. Once again Liverpool’s resolve will be tested as early season injuries to Carragher and Aquiliani leave the Reds scrambling for cover. Injuries will likely tell the story of LIverpool’s title chase. If Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres stay healthy, there is no duo more capable of turning a match on its head.

Benitez’s squad rotation policy aims to keep the team fresh – but it will be interesting to see how a title chase effects the policy if Liverpool hold the lead as the season winds down. No key weaknesses and a sound overall approach to the season should keep the Anfield faithful hopeful for the Barclay’s trophy provided they’re willing to settle for less in Europe.

Chelsea, 2nd
Another Russian import highlights Roman Abramovich’s summer transfer activity. Yuri Zhirkov arrives from CSKA Moscow to Stamford Bridge for 18m. Carlo Ancelotti assumes the Chelsea hot seat and all its trophy expectations. The former AC Milan figurehead is no stranger to high expectations and should be able to handle the London cauldron. Last season’s coaching carousel still saw the Blues finish third in the League, earn a Champions League semifinal, and win the FA Cup. Anything less this season will be considered a failure.

Chelsea appears to be constructing a side intent on conceding the fewest goals in the Premier League and will look to Frank Lampard, Nicholas Anelka, and Didier Drogba to provide the goals at the other end of the pitch. Drogba’s health, an ongoing saga last season, may well remain a storyline in 2009-2010. With only Manchester City wonder kid Daniel Sturridge providing cover, Chelsea could find themselves thin upfront during League games if Ancelotti chooses to run out both Anelka and Drogba for Champions League matches. European demands may ultimately hinder Chelsea’s Premier League efforts.

Manchester United, 3rd
Despite the highly dramatized departure of World Footballer of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid in the offseason, the Red Devils remain a favorite to win a third consecutive Premier League title when the season wraps up in May 2010. Sir Alex Ferguson spent most of the summer tempering expectations regarding transfer activity – particularly after moving early to secure the services of midfielder Antonio Valencia from Wigan for a small portion of the 80m earned from the sale of Ronaldo. While many expected Man United to match the money thrown around by Real Madrid and their Eastlands counterparts, Ferguson focused more on keeping the club strong with additions Michael Owen and Valencia heading into Old Trafford.

The Red Devils will remain solid in the back with Edwin Van Der Saar and a deep back four will ensure fresh legs for the inevitable fixture congestion. And while one could expect the midfield to be weakened by the departure of Ronaldo – the addition of Valencia will keep United stout in the middle. Expect Owen to shine in Ferguson’s attack and Dmitri Berbatov should rebound from a subpar 08-09 campaign. Even with only three proven strikers upfront, United is not without attacking options but it might not be enough firepower to lift the Red Devils to the top of the table.

Manchester City, 4th
Oil money has build championship sides before – read Roman Abramovich – and there is no reason to think the same can’t be done at the Eastlands. Of course, after shelling out over 105m this summer putting together an impressive collection of players, one has to wonder how much time Mark Hughes will be given to turn a group of expensive players into a competitive outfit that will compete for trophies.

It’ll be interesting to see who will be upfront for City during any given match. With eight strikers, six of them will likely be spending the afternoon on the bench. Perhaps Sheik Monsour bin Zayed al-Nahan felt City was better off weakening everyone else by buying their strikers and putting them on his bench. Despite all of the money being splashed around on talent. Stephen Ireland remains the best Manchester City player in recent memory and expect him to thrive surrounded by upgraded talent. The addition of Kaolo Toure helps solidify a notoriously porous back four. Shay Given provides nice cover on the goal line, but it’ll be interesting to see if City will be able to keep the ball out of the back of its own net. A weakened top four improves City’s chances of breaking the monopoly but mercenary football never seems to work and it’ll be interesting to see if Hughes will be given time to actually build a balanced side.

Aston Villa, 5th
Villa emerged as a contender to upset the balance of the Top Four last season but faded down the stretch as the European comittments stretched the Premier League’s smallest squad to its limits last season, eventually costing the Midlands side a shot at Champions League football as the Villans fell to sixth in the League. The departures by Gareth Barry (Manchester City) and Martin Laursen (retirement) certainly weaken the side, but Martin O’Niell targets Fabian Delph and Stuart Downing should prove adequate replacements.

Aston Villa do have questions in front of keeper Brad Friedel, but the midfield anchored by Stylian Petrov, and James Milner can control matches. O’Niell has large targets Emile Heskey and John Carew up top and pacy wingers Gabriel Agbonlahor and Ashley Young provide constant threats. If O’Niell can sort out his backline and build some squad depth, Villa can push the Top Four and still maintain a solid European campaign.

Arsenal, 6th
Arsene Wegner’s claims that Aston Villa and Manchester City can create a Big Six in the Premier League might be saying more about his own squad than paying compliments to his adversaries. Wegner’s only significant summer addition, Thomas Vermaelen, joins a back four that at times showed significant frailty at various points during the season. The losses of Emanuel Adebayor and Kolo Toure weaken the side, but in typical Arsenal fashion, they do have a plethora of young talent poised to fill the void.

The return of Eduardo gives Wenger options up front and a dynamic midfield with the likes of Csec Fabregas, Theo Walcott, and Andriy Arshavin will keep opponents cautious about pushing up too forward intent on exploiting a weakened back line. Wegner may be tempering expectations for a club expected to compete for trophies every season, but even with diminished expectations, if any club above the Gunners stumbles, be sure they’ll be poised to exploit the slip and climb the table.

Everton, 7th
Nobody gets more out of their club than David Moyes. Every season Everton lack resources to make a significant splash in the transfer market, but every season Moyes spends smartly and fields a side capable of playing with the best in England and Europe. Moyes has secured the services of Jo from Manchester City for another season at Goodison Park, but otherwise, Everton has done little to improve a squad that finished fifth in the Premier League last season.

Once again, Everton lacks significant striker options with Jo and Louis Saha favorites to start out front. A strong crop of attack-minded midfielders lead by Tim Cahill, Mikel Arteta, and Phil Neville help mitigate weaknesses out front. Jolean Lescott leads a Everton backline that can struggle at times and a potential move to the Eastlands would signal alarm bells in front of Tim Howard. With fellow Merseysiders Liverpool pushing for a league title, expect Everton to challenge for European football and continue its excellent run of top-half Premier League finishes.

Tottenham Hotspur, 8th
The slow start under Juande Ramos last season hampered Tottenham’s ability to qualify for Europe but did lead to the hiring of managerial journeyman Harry Redknapp. Under Redknapp, Spurs began to show signs of life and a late season push overcame early season relegation concerns. White Heart Lane will always appeal to the cosmopolitan footballer and Tottenham’s transfer activities bear that out. This summer’s additions Peter Crouch, Sebasstian Bassong, and Kyle Naughton relfect that appeal and give Redknapp options heading into the 2009-2010 campaign.

Injuries to Johnathan Woodgate and Michael Dawson leave questions at the back in front of eccentric keeper Huerilio Gomes. Tottenham struggled in defense away from home and any push toward European football needs to be coupled with an improved away record. Expect Lucas Modric to settle in to the Premier League after initially struggling to find his footing in the English game last season. The strike trio of Crouch, Robbie Keane, and Jermaine Defoe will certainly see Spurs scoring goals this season, but Redknapp knows the season will be won or lost at the back as he continues to look for reinforcements.

West Ham United, 9th
West Ham will play some beautiful football in 2009-2010 thanks in part to a full season with Gianfranco Zola at the helm. But the financial troubles the club finds itself in will significantly hinder the club’s ability to make a serious push into the upper echelons of the Premier League. Widely considered the ‘best of the rest’, West Ham will find a top-half finish this season a pleasant success and spend most the season finding ways to avoid the relegation struggle. No significant signings this summer will mean goals will have to come from everyone on the pitch as the strike force of Carlton Cole and Dean Ashton won’t see significant support anytime soon.

At the back, West Ham might find itself without stalwart Matthew Upson by the time the season begins placing additional pressure on Robert Green to keep the Hammers in matches. A solid midfield comprised of Mark Noble, Scott Parker, and a compelling mix of youth and experience will need to overachieve if West Ham’s season is to pay significant dividends.

Fulham, 10th
Roy Hodgson piloted Fulham to a surprise European qualification in 2009 thanks in part to a stingy defense that conceded only 34 goals in 38 matches. The West London club, however, will find it hard to balance the commitments of both the Premier League and the Europa League with a squad ill-equipped to cope with inevitable fixture congestion European football creates. European nights as part of group play could help with the profile of the London-based club longer term but might come at the expense of its all important Premier League campaign and positioning for a return trip to Europe next season.

Hodgson will have to work his magic once again in 2009-2010. The Cottagers benefited from last season’s relegation battle that saw as many as 10 teams caught up in the fight. As other teams battled the pressure, Fulham plugged away mid-table. Expect more of the same this season. The quartet of Bredge Hangeland, Aaron Hughes, Paul Konchesky, and John Pantsil logged considerable minutes last season and there is very little beyond them to protect Mark Schwarzer from oncoming attacks. Danny Murphy, Clint Dempsey, and Simon Davies lead a midfield-driven offense that needs to find the net more often.

Blackburn Rovers, 11th
When Sam Allardyce inherited the club from Paul Ince last season, relegation seemed a real possibility for a side that had enjoyed European football for two of the past three seasons. This season, Allardyce aims to put an end to the free fall and stabilize Rovers as a top-flight club for years to come – bringing in a handful of continental Europeans and replacing some of the troublesome areas that nearly earned Blackburn a trip to the Championship.

Blackburn boasts a top keeper in Paul Robinson but still conceded too many goals. Rovers -20 goal difference was a 22-goal shift from the season before. At times injuries forced central defender Christopher Samba into a striker role, but if Rovers remain healthy, they have some weapons in Morten Gamst-Pederson, Benni McCarthy, Jason Roberts, and El-Hadji Diouf. A relegation scrap doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Rovers this season and the Ewood Park faithful should breathe easy as Allardyce has the team back to it rightful place fighting for European football.

Bolton, 12th
Gary Megson certainly has his detractors but his philosophy of building a club from the back forward is reflected in his approach to the transfer market in 2009. The additions of Zat Knight, Sam Ricketts, and Paul Robinson strengthen a stingy defense. After escaping relegation in 2007, Bolton should be able to field a side this season that will avoid a relegation battle and test the patience of opponents hoping for an easy three points at the Reebok.

Kevin Davies provides the attacking threat in front of a deep midfield that includes Premier League workhorses such as Matthew Taylor, Ricardo Gardner, and Gavin McCann. Bolton is strongest in the back with Gary Cahill and Gretar Steinsson anchoring a stingy defense. Jussi Jaaskailenan provides leadership and while a European push doesn’t seem likely, there seems to be enough in this year’s squad to secure a mid-table finish.

Sunderland, 13th
Sunderland always seems to be boxing above its weight-class in every transfer window in attempt to build a side capable of avoiding the yo-yo between the Premier League and Championship, and the 2009 summer transfer window appears to be no different. While new coach Steve Bruce was linked to some big names, the Black Cats did secure the services of Darren Bent, Frazier Campbell, Lorik Cana, and Paulo Da Silva this summer. Bruce will attempt to replicate his effort at Wigan and keep Sunderland up for another season and mold the side into a permanent Premier Leauge fixture.

Club-record 10m signing Bent and workhorse Kenwye Jones will provide a threat upfront and a decent midfield that includes Steed Malbranque and Kieran Richardson should provide a enough firepower to protect a defense that exhibited frequent lapses last season. With the Roy Keane saga in the rearview mirror and Bruce bringing a new sense of accountability to the club, Sunderland should avoid the drop and continue its push toward Premier League consistency.

Stoke City, 14th
For much of the 2008-2009 season, Stoke City looked destined to go down. With 10 games to go, the Potters sat 19th on 26 points. But a late season surge lifted Stoke up 13th position and the prospects for Premier League survival look promising for another season as Tony Pulis has kept the squad mainly intact while bringing in Dean Whitehead from Sunderland for 3m.

Keeper Thomas Sorensen has top flight experience with both Stoke and Aston Villa. Ryan Showcross and Danny Higginbotham pilot a back four intent on absorbing opposition attacks and launching long balls upfield forcing the offense to reset and try again. The midfield creates chances with Rory Delap’s long throws and Liam Lawrence’s ability to score from all areas of the pitch. Pulis has options up front with Ricardo Fuller, James Beattie, and Dave Kitson. Stoke won’t surprise anyone this season, but as long as The Britannia Stadium remains the loudest and rowdiest venue in the Premier League, chances are decent that the Potters will remain in the top-flight for a third season.

Wolverhampton Wolves, 15th
Wolves earned automatic promotion by running out to Championship title with an impressive 90 points. Mick McCarthy’s squad looks capable of making things interesting in the Premier League with the additions of Reading’s Marcus Hennemahn and Kevin Doyle, Sunderland’s Greg Halford and Red Star Belgrade’s Nenad Milijas. Hennemahn will likely start in the net for Wolverhampton while Doyle and Milijas will look to complement scoring threat Sylvan Ebanks-Blake.

Wolves aim to avoid a quick return to the Championship like Midlands rival West Brom did last season. Wolves should be given every opportunity to earn its place for at least another season and avoid its 20th-place finish from a few seasons ago.

Portsmouth, 16th
These are dark times on the South Coast as Portsmouth sold off its two best players in Peter Crouch and Glen Johnson for a combined 26m. Couple the firesale with Paul Hart’s stewardship of an uninspiring relegation escape and significant ownership questions, and things don’t look terribly promising for the 2009-2010 season. If Portsmouth do find themselves going into administration, the 10-point deduction might just be too much for the team to overcome.

On the bright side, Pompey still have the ageless David James in goal and experienced defenders in Sol Campbell, Herman Hreidarsson, and Steve Finnan protecting the back line. Playmaker Nico Kranjcar can creatively turn a defense inside out, but without any proven strikers, Portsmouth may have a hard time finding goals, especially away from Fratton Park. Expect another relegation battle this season even if they manage to retain the services of a few key players.

Birmingham City, 17th
City quickly returns to the Premier League earning automatic promotion by finishing second to Wolves after being relegated at the close of the 2007-2008 season. Alex McLeish subsequently went on a bit of a preseason spending spree when the transfer window opened in July bringing in no less than seven new players to make sure a return to the Championship is not in the cards for 2009-2010. One key acquisition, Manchester City loan Joe Hart, should help stabilize a back line that at times looked overmatched during the Blues last stay in the Premier League.

A pair of Lees in Lee Bowyer and Lee Carsley bring a gritty element to the midfield. Alex McLeish expects big signing Christian Benitez to bring goals in return for his 9.2m fee. This time around Birmingham should have enough to stay up given some of the newer clubs to the Premier League this time around as the relegation battle will look a lot like recent Championship title races.

Wigan Athletic, 18th
Mid-table mediocrity has marked Wigan’s tenure in the Premier League – finishing a shock 10th in their first season with a 14th and 11th-place finish the past two seasons after narrowly avoiding relegation three seasons ago. This season, relegation appears likely as a new head coach lacks resources and proven Premier League talent to cope with the demands of the inevitable relegation scrap.

Scott Sincalir comes over from Chelsea on loan, but the Latics look weak in front of both goals as they lack any legitimate scoring threat and sport a skittish backline. The loss of Antonio Valencia to Manchester United weakens the midfield, and Charles N’Zogbia and Lee Cattermole will provide limited threats to the opposing defenses. A slow start could only increase the pressure on Roberto Martinez. Its likely to be a long season at the JJB.

Burnley, 19th
Of the newly promoted clubs into the Premier League this season, Burnley appears the least likely to survive relegation back to the Championship due to the overall lack of proven top-level talent on the roster. The Clarets enter the season with only David Edgar from Newcastle logging any significant Premier League minutes last season. Of course, Burnley will be one of the better organized sides this winter with Owen Coyle at the helm.

Scotland stopper Steven Caldwell anchors a savvy back four in front of debutant keeper Brian Jensen. Burnley’s midfield and attack will have to collectively find a way to muster goals as they lack a proven top-flight scorer among them. It may be a long season at Turf Moor, but if a few results can go their way and they can remain organized despite the pressures of the top flight, they may very well find a way to stay up.

Hull City, 20th
Phil Brown will need to reach into his bag of tricks this season if he expects to prevent Hull City from slipping back into the Championship after a rocky first season in the Premier League that saw the Tigers get out to a fast start only to stumble toward the bottom as the season progressed. Without the early season run, Hull would have found themselves hopelessly relegated as they earned only 15 points in the final 23 games of the season and three points in the final 10 games.

As result, Brown aggresively pursued talent upgrades across the squad bringing in Jozy Altidore on loan from Villareal and Seyi Olifinjana from Stoke. However, this likely won’t be enough to keep the Tigers up. They lack a serious scoring threat upfront and its main offensive threat, Geovanni, has a tumultous relationship with Brown. Hull remains solid at the back led my Michael Turner but he may not finish the season with Hull if things start off slowly.

Editor’s Note: Yes, I am an Aston Villa fan and would not enjoy seeing Villa do any worse than seventh, no matter its likelihood. Chances are the defensive crisis at the back could have us sink to seventh, but its still the preseason and this is for fun.

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By brownsvillan – August 11, 2009

Review: The Man Who Invented Pro Football by George Cantor

Paul Brown’s legacy casts a long shadow into the modern version of professional football. In Paul Brown: The Man Who Invented Pro Football, George Cantor touches on some of Brown’s modern innovations and chronicles his journey through Ohio football from high school to the professional ranks.

Brown began his career at Massillon Washington High School and quickly compiled an impressive 80-8-2 record. When the Ohio State job opened in 1941, Brown quickly moved to fill the role due to his popularity as a successful high school coach. Eventually, when Cleveland’s entry into the AAFC needed a coach, Brown took the job. Cantor discusses how the war impacted the college game and eventually left Brown with little choice but to move on the blossoming professional game where he eventually built a dynasty.

Brown introduced many practices in place today – position coaches, sending plays in from the sidelines, and an offensive scheme predicated on short passes and a complementary run game typically referred to as the West Coast offense. The book spends some time discussing these innovations, but in the end the book reads more like a timeline of Brown’s coaching exploits, tracing his steps from boyhood through retirement. The story never digs too deeply into any one specific area, but the cadence of the biography moves the reader through Brown’s career in a way that nicely mimics Brown’s coaching journey.

In the end, many of the characteristics that lead to Brown’s success also contributed to many of his problems. Brown mandated discipline from his players and his uncompromising approach alienated many of his players later on in their careers despite the continue championships. Resentment mounted. Ironically, though, Brown did not apply that same approach to the game. His stubbornness with people contradicted the innovation he brought to coaching. Recognizing the game as always changing and looking for an edge, Brown was willing to explore new ways to play the game provided his players remained consistent and disciplined.

Cantor spends a good amount of time discussing Brown’s falling out in Cleveland and his resentment toward Art Modell and his relationships with the players. For Brown, he took it personally and spent the better part of his final days trying to make peace with how he felt he was wronged by the team he built. For readers interested in how Paul Brown built the Cleveland Browns into the first modern NFL dynasty, Cantor’s biography delivers.

Posted in Book Review, Cleveland Browns, Football.

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By brownsvillan – January 15, 2009