A Post-All Star Look at the Tribe
Cleveland’s front office talks quite a bit about contention. Ask most Indians fans what contention means to them and they’ll likely talk about playing baseball into October. Ask the Indians front office and you’ll likely get a discussion of the economic realities in baseball, competing for a division title, and some abstract commitment about prudently investing in the team on the field. So 2012, up to this point, would qualify as a moderate success.
A 44-41 record heading into the second half of the season meets the criteria established by both Indians fans and the front office. Only the most pessimistic Indians fan wouldn’t believe Cleveland has at least an outside shot at winning a fairly weak AL Central. And the front office can trot the platitudes about contending and tease with the promise of investment provided the terms be economically feasible. Not “Legends of October” worthy investments, mind you, but chances are the club will try and get better in the second half of the season.
Speaking of which – the second half of the season. As it stands, the Indians record is slightly better than their run differential would suggest. Thanks to a strong bullpen helping the team win close games, the Indians sit four games better than the 40-45 record they should have at this point in the season. This puts the Indians on pace to win somewhere between 82 and 86 games. An improvement over last season’s 80-82 – but you just don’t get the sense Cleveland will ride a hot streak, and finish north of 90 victories. Here are the reasons why:
Pitching. Aside from Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano, Indians pitching has been nothing short of awful in 2012. Check out the AL Pitching WAR leaders graph below. Justin Masterson barely slides into the top-half of AL starters thanks mostly in part to a recent string of strong outings. Derek Lowe and Ubaldo Jimenez have been subpar despite Lowe’s strong start and Jimenez’s recent improvement. Jeanmar Gomez, Josh Tomlin, and Zach McAllister haven’t done enough to significantly impact the season and can be considered nothing more than slightly better than replacement players at this point. Best case scenario has McAllister and Tomlin holding down the back end of the rotation while the front three of Masterson, Jimenez, and Lowe find their top form for the remainder of the campaign. Worst case scenario has all five remaining inconsistent forcing the Indians to chase ballgames with a hit-and-mostly-miss offense.
Hitting. This has been a known question mark for a couple of seasons and the 2012 numbers suggest that aside from Carlos Santana’s extended struggles, the guys the Indians expected to hit have hit. Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, and Michael Brantley have delivered on expectations. For the Indians to push on in the second half, Cleveland needs to get some production from Carlos Santana and the rest of the lineup. The left field problem has been well-documented and Casey Kotchman has been a borderline disaster at the plate despite a recent uptick in production. But if this team can’t find a way to score runs on a more consistent basis, the AL Central title won’t be arriving on Ohio’s North Coast anytime soon.
