A Numbers Game Look at Aston Villa

Aston Villa may just be charting a new path to success in the English Premier League. Lost in the noise of the frustrating seasons under Gerard Houllier and Alex McLeish has been the way in which Villa have changed its approach – going with youth and sensible transfer spending. With Paul Lambert at the helm, Villa seems to be exploring alternative paths to success beyond the common “buying the best players we can” approach seen from so many clubs desperate to make their mark.

One way to examine this change in approach is to look at Villa’s changes through the contextual lens of David Sally and Chris Anderson’s new book “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer is Wrong”. In the book, Sally and Anderson share a great deal of analysis that informs how of the long-held maxims associated with the game aren’t terribly helpful and how newer perspectives on the game could offer new paths to success. Villa seem to be taking some of this advice to heart.

Clean Sheets

Teams playing attractive, flowing football receive a great deal of attention in the modern game. Sally and Anderson remind readers that the darker side of the game – not conceding – provides powerful insight into how teams can approach matches. The book highlights a stat showing that “scoring an additional 10 goals reduces defeats per season by 1.76; conceding ten fewer goals reduces defeats in the Premier League by 2.35 matches. In order to earn points from a match, teams typically need to score ‘more than two’. However, a clean sheet produces almost as many points as scoring two goals.”

For Villa, this is a huge problem. In all of last season, Villa had five clean sheets and so far going into their match against Liverpool on Saturday, have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 24 matches. Not a strong record and certainly a key reason why Villa fought the relegation battle up until the penultimate match of the season. The 69 total goals conceded were only topped by relegated Wigan Athletic (73) and Reading (73). For Villa to progress up the table, they must find a way to stop shipping so many goals.

Weak and Strong Links

Another insight to emerge from The Numbers Game focuses on how top players love to play with other top players and how teams are only as strong as their weakest link and that those weakest links have a strong independent impact on the team as a whole. The book used the Castrol Edge Index Rankings as a basis for scoring players.

Villa’s strongest player plays just behind its collective weakest link. Brad Guzan barely rates above Christian Benteke with a 69.8 index. Most of the Villa defenders index somewhere between 64.8 (Ron Vlaar) and 51.4 (Joe Bennett). Villa’s attack rates pretty well with Gabriel Agbonlahor, Andreas Wiemann, and Benteke rating between 68.8 and 62.2. But given the number of goals conceded by Villa in 2012-2013, shoring up the defense is clearly the path to improvement for the upcoming season.

It’s not clear the additions of Antonio Luna or Jores Okore will contribute to a stabilized and improved back four at Villa Park. Too frequently Villa found itself breached with Guzan facing a flurry of shots with very little resistance in front of him. Individual player growth and increased defensive depth should improve the outlook here – but look for Villa to continue to concede a fair amount of goals.

Retaining Christian Benteke

While Villa would have certainly poured some of the money made by selling Christian Benteke back into its attack, having the Belgian return to Villa Park will likely prove to be the best case scenario for both player and club. The Numbers Game revealed that very often when players leave one club for another, a dip in performance is to be expected. Given the high price demanded by Villa for Benteke’s services, Benteke likely would have likely found the pressure to live up to the transfer fee paid by his new club (Tottenham) to be difficult.

Sally and Anderson cite “The Myth of Talent and the Portability of Performance” as an analogous model for footballers, citing research showing the inevitable dip in performance when moving to another organization. It’s not certain Lambert referenced the specific study in his talks with Benteke this summer, but a general theme such as this certainly likely played a role in convincing the Belgian to stay onboard and not risk his chances of making the Belgian side likely headed to Brazil for the 2014 World Cup.

Whether Villa has consciously addressed some of these principles or not is not necessarily important. Its equally unimportant to theorize as to whether Villa have solved the modern game for clubs with less resources than the bigger Champions League clubs. Let’s hope the club’s management realizes the positive path taken and not resort to traditional ineffective approaches like the 24 million pound panic buy of Darren Bent two seasons ago.